Week 9 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
I did not place any bets this weekend. I’m focusing strictly on DraftKings. However, if you’d like to get an idea of how certain players might perform this weekend, I suggest reading everything below.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Daniel Jones - Alec Pierce - Tyler Warren - DK Metcalf
This is the third-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is ranked third in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Colts games rank third in total points in the NFL, mostly due to them scoring points, not the opponent, but this game has a small spread so we’re hoping the Steelers can add to the total on their own end.
Five of the last six quarterbacks to face the Steelers had at least two touchdown passes and QBs have averaged 293 passing yards per game against the Steelers this season. I really like Daniel Jones in this game.
The Steelers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season and they have allowed the most yards per game to tight ends in the league. In fact, four different tight ends have had their season high in receiving yards against the Steelers. Tyler Warren is set up for success this week.
Since returning from injury, Alec Pierce leads all Colts’ pass catchers in routes run, receiving yards and yards per route run.
The Steelers play man coverage at a top-ten rate in the league and Pierce leads the Colts in targets against man coverage this season.
The Steelers defense has allowed the fourth-highest explosive play rate in the league, and that’s where Alec Pierce makes his bread and butter. The Steelers have allowed the ninth-most 20+ yard completions in the league. All Pierce needs is one big play TD to stand out this week.
In general, the Steelers have allowed the third-most catches and sixth-most yards to opposing wide receivers. I am taking a stand on Pierce this week, but Michael Pittman is certainly not a bad play either.
The Steelers have averaged 26 points per game over their last four games. Their offense with Rodgers is more than competent.
The Colts have given up a league-high 120 catches to wide receivers and their best CB in Charvarius Ward is still out. I think DK Metcalf is ready to have a huge day if this game ends up being competitive.
Patrick Mahomes - Kareem Hunt - Rashee Rice - Khalil Shakir
This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
Including the playoffs, the Bills and Chiefs have met three times in the past two seasons. Those games have ended up at 32-29, 30-21, and 27-24. We can be reasonably confident that points will be scored in this matchup as well.
Isiah Pacheco is out, and the Bills best DT Ed Oliver is out as well, so Kareem Hunt should have a good matchup here. Hunt averaged 19 carries and three targets in Pacheco’s eight missed games last season.
The Bills have a run-funnel defense that has allowed 800 rushing yards at 5.3 YPC and nine touchdowns this season.
In his last three games against the Chiefs, Khalil Shakir has gone for 6-46, 8-70, and 7-44-1. Shakir runs nearly 60% of his routes from the slot, where the Chiefs are weakest in the secondary.
Mac Jones - Kendrick Bourne - George Kittle - Darius Slayton
This is the fourth-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is ranked second in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Giants defense has given up the second-most points and fourth-most yards on a per-play basis.
The Giants are without their top two CBs in Paulson Adebo and Cordale Flott and already allow the NFL’s third-most catches and a league-high 1,394 yards to opposing wideouts.
Kendrick Bourne is playing nearly 80% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps and clearly has great chemistry with Mac Jones.
The 49ers defense has the league’s lowest pressure rate since Nick Bosa tore his ACL in Week 3. They are now also without their second-best DE in Bryce Huff. Last week the 49ers hit C.J. Stroud just twice and didn’t sack him at all on 39 dropbacks last week. We know how awful the Texans OL is so that seems like an extra pathetic performance by them.
Due to this lack of a pass rush, Darius Slayton’s ability to go deep is improved. Slayton led the Giants in targets last week and had a 68-yard touchdown called back due to penalty against a much better Eagles team.
The 49ers have allowed the NFL’s seventh-most catches and ninth-most yards to wide receivers.
Jared Goff - Amon Ra St. Brown - Jameson Williams - Jordan Addison
This is the fifth-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is indoors, which in general elevates scoring.
The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz percentage (42%), while Jared Goff is PFF’s No. 8-graded passer when blitzed.
Goff also historically plays much better at home than on the road.
In four career games facing Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, Amon Ra St. Brown has gone for 6-77, 8-112-1, 7-144-1, and 12-106-1.
As someone who owns Jameson Williams on his dynasty team, I know how frustrating he has been this year, but we need to get the bad taste out of our mouth and take some risks. This week both Lions head coach Dave Campbell and Lions offensive coordinator John Morton have said they need to do a better job of giving Williams the ball.
Favorite One-Off Players
Christian McCaffrey
The Giants have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this year and 144 total yards per game to RBs.
Specifically, they have allowed 930 rushing yards at 6.1 YPC and 6 touchdowns to running backs this year.
Ja’Marr Chase
The Bears-Bengals game ranks first in pace of play on the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Chicago’s defense allows the league’s most yards and fourth-most points on a per-play basis, while generating the fifth-fewest pressures.
Bears games rank seventh in total points in the NFL while Bengals games rank third in total points in the NFL. Points are going to be scored in this game, and I am betting that Chase is part of that.
Joe Flacco is targeting Chase 17 times a game. Although the Bears are getting back CB Tyrique Stevenson, they are still without No. 1 CB Jaylon Johnson and slot CB Kyler Gordon. No one on the Bears can cover Chase. As a Bears fan I am scared.
In general, the Bears have allowed the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy WR points.
Kimani Vidal
The Titans allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs on the season.
The Chargers are almost ten-point favorites, so they are expected to run the ball.
Kyle Monangai
Both D’Andre Swift AND Roschon Johnson are out for the Bears. He is their lone remaining usable RB.
The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to running backs.
TreVeyon Henderson
Rhamondre Stevenson is out for this game, so Henderson should take on most of the workload.
The Patriots are at home and favored by five points, so they should be in a position to run the ball.
In their last four games, the Falcons have allowed 507 rushing yards at 4.9 YPC and two rushing TDs to running backs. Their defense is much stronger in the secondary.
Tyrone Tracy
Cam Skattebo is out for the year, and Tracy is only $5100 this week.
Tracy has had eight career games where he has gotten at least 15 touches. In those games he averaged 15 fantasy points.
Over the last four weeks, the 49ers rank bottom 10 in PPG allowed to opposing RBs.
Dart Throw Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs
In two games against the Vikings last year, Gibbs rushed for a total of 255 yards and five rushing touchdowns along with 75 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.
The Lions are at home and favored by nine points.
Brian Thomas Jr.
The Raiders have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy WR points.
Thomas Jr. has seen at least six targets in each of his games this year.
In a different world, Thomas Jr. would be a slam-dunk play, but he’s been so frustrating this year that I can only consider him a dart throw.
Juan Jennings
All the stats I gave for the stack above apply to Jennings.
Jennings has seen at least seven targets in his past two games.
I think Jennings is more talented than Kendrick Boure, but he’s underperformed this year and has been battling with an array of injuries.
Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week
Justin Herbert - Ladd McConkey - Oronde Gadsden II - Chimere Dike
Chargers LT Joe Alt is healthy and will be playing this week. Justin Herbert is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt with a 107.2 rating with Alt on the field this year, versus 6.7 YPA with an 88.6 rating without Alt.
Titans top CB L’Jarius Sneed is on I.R. and they also traded their number two CB Roger McCreary to the Rams. Their secondary seems to be in shambles.
Chimere Dike played a season-high 89% of the offensive snaps last week and has caught 11 of 12 targets for 163 yards and a touchdown over his last two appearances.
Dike is running 69% of his routes from the slot, while Chargers slot CB Tarheeb Still is out for this game.
