Week 10 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
I did not place any bets this weekend. I’m focusing strictly on DraftKings. However, if you’d like to get an idea of how certain players might perform this weekend, I suggest reading everything below.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Jaxson Dart - Darius Slayton - Rome Odunze
This is the sixth-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game ranks first in pace of play on the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Bears games rank third in average total points (55.3), their defense is atrocious. We all saw Joe Flacco shred them last week and Tyler Huntley do pretty well against them two weeks ago.
The Bears have allowed 13 plays of 15+ yards and they rank 10th worst in explosive play rate allowed. This sets up well for Darius Slayton.
Slayton has had six, five, and seven targets in three games since Malik Nabers got hurt. He had a penalty nullify a TD two weeks ago and he dropped an easy TD pass last week. All he needs is one TD and he should pay off his price at $4300 this week.
Although Jaxson Dart has exceeded 202 passing yards just once through six starts, he is fantasy’s overall QB3 over the past six weeks, and the Bears are allowing the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. I prefer Dart over Williams because the Bears tend to focus on running the ball more than pass.
Giants games are also top 10 in average total points (49.6). We have two teams whose defense is weak and whose offense is at least competent enough to score points.
The Giants allow the eighth-highest opponent explosive play rate (12%). So, both the Bears and Giants allow for explosive plays that can increase scoring and volume. This is what we want when we play DFS.
The Giants have surrendered the NFL’s fifth-most catches and fourth-most yards to wideouts and are still without their best CB in Paulson Adebo. Rome Odunze is primed for a bounce back game.
Matt Stafford - Kyren Williams - George Kittle (or Jauan Jennings)
This is the second-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game ranks second in pace of play on the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Since Week 4, the second-best QB in PPG is Matthew Stafford.
He’s scored at least 25 points in four of his last five games.
Four of the last five QBs to face SF have scored 19+ fantasy points.
The Rams defense has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per carry and gave up a 2.2-yard average to San Francisco back in Week 5. McCaffrey can always do damage through the air, but because the run game will most likely be dampened, I believe the 49ers receiving corps is due for a big game.
Jauan Jennings has gone three straight games above a 20% target share with 5, 7, and 7 targets in those games. His price at $4600 is too low for that target share in a highly projected scoring game.
I am not including Puca Nacua or Davante Adams in this stack because they are just too expensive for me. I am worried they won’t pay off their price tags.
Drake Maye - Stefon Diggs - Cade Otton (or Tez Johnson)
This is the fourth-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game ranks third in pace of play on the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Patriots defense still hasn’t allowed a 50-yard rusher all season, so I’m expecting the Bucs to be forced to throw to generate offense. The Bucs defense has also been staunch against the run outside of one game against the Lions.
The Bucs defense has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most QB rushing yards (202) and 11th-most 20+ yard completions (26). This sets up very well for Drake Maye.
Stefon Diggs leads the Pats in all receiving categories. Kayshon Boutte does lead New England wideouts in snaps but won’t play due to a hamstring pull.
The Patriots have allowed the league’s seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. Cade Otton has scored plenty of points the last few weeks without scoring a TD. Imagine if he gets a TD this week.
Lamar Jackson - Mark Andrews - Jordan Addison
This is the fourth-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is indoors.
The Vikings blitz at the NFL’s second-highest rate (41%), while Lamar Jackson leads the league in QB Rating against the blitz (136.4), completing nearly 80% of his throws at nearly 10 yards per attempt in such scenarios.
Favorite One-Off Players
Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards over expectation while ranking eighth in carries (131).
The Saints have allowed an average of 134.6 total yards and a touchdown per game to enemy backs.
The Panthers are favored by 5.5 points at home, so the expectation is for them to run the ball.
Dowdle has had three games this year with 20+ touches. He’s scored 28+ points in each one of them.
RBs that have seen at least 15 touches against the Saints this year are averaging 17.3 PPG.
Quinshon Judkins
The Jets just traded Quinnen Williams, who was PFF’s No. 1-graded run-stopping interior defensive lineman.
Even with him in the lineup, the Jets were allowing the ninth-most fantasy points in the league by enemy running backs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Cardinals defense has been good this year, but they are without their top two CBs in this game.
James Cook
He’s playing in the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
The Bills are almost ten-point favorites, so they are expected to run.
There are signs that the Dolphins rush defense is improving, but they have still allowed 1073 rushing yards at 5.06 YPC to opposing RBs. We were all worried about Cook against the Panthers a few weeks ago and he ran for over 200 yards. I refuse to be fooled again.
Dart Throw Plays
Jaylen Waddle
He’s playing in the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
The Dolphins are almost ten-point underdogs to the Bills, so they are expected to pass.
In the five games since Tyreek Hill’s injury, Waddle has at least 80 receiving yards in four of them.
He’s averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game during that stretch.
Bills top CB Christian Benford and slot CB Taron Johnson are both dealing with groin injuries that have not ruled them out but have clearly hindered them.
De’Von Achane
The Bills are a run-funnel defense and although the Dolphins are heavy underdogs we know Achane excels in the passing game as well.
The Bills will be without DT Ed Oliver and DE Michael Hoecht.
Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift
The Giants defense has allowed a total of 1,089 rushing yards at 5.9 YPC and eight rushing TDs this season.
I wish we knew with certainty what the share between these RBs would be this game. I think they are both playable and I lean towards Monangai.
Nico Collins
Davis Mills is not a good QB, but he has Flacco-like capabilities in the sense of he will target Collins a lot.
Rashid Shaheed
Same reasons I gave for Smith-Njigba, but I’m much less confident in Shaheed.
The Seahawks head coach did say that Shaheed might need to play extensively this week, and Shaheed is reuniting with Klint Kubiak, who was his OC last year.
Tory Horton is out, and Cooper Kupp is questionable.
Wan’Dale Robinson
Since Week 6, Wan’Dale Robinson has a 30% target share while averaging 8.5 targets per game.
No team allows more touchdowns to the slot than the Chicago Bears, where Robinson runs most of his routes.
Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week
Jared Goff - Amon Ra St. Brown - Sam Laporta - Deebo Samuel
This is the third-highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
The Commanders are allowing 6.2 yards per play — third most in the NFL.
They are also allowing the 10th-most points per game (26.2).
The Commanders have allowed an NFC-high 1,542 yards and the NFL’s fourth-most TDs (11) to enemy WRs and just lost top CB Marshon Lattimore last week.
Specifically, no defense has given up more production in the slot than the Commanders, setting up very well for Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Further showing how damaged the Commanders secondary is, they have allowed a league-high 34 completions of 20+ yards. I don’t have confidence in Jameson Williams, but he is playable.
The Commanders have surrendered the league’s sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, so Sam Laporta should continue playing well this week.
The Lions lost to the Commanders last year in the playoffs and might want to have a mini-revenge game here.
