Week 8 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
JK Dobbins: SGP of 40+ rushing yards and a TD.
Enemy running backs have averaged 157 yards from scrimmage against the Cowboys this year.
The Cowboys allow the fourth most fantasy points to running backs and the third most yards per carry to running backs.
The Broncos are home favorites, so they are expected to rely on the run slightly more than the passing game.
Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi says he plans to play Dobbins more this week than usual due to how well Dobbins has played so far this year.
I bet $10 at +106 odds for a $20.60 return.
Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren: SGP of Taylor 60+ rushing yards and a TD, and Warren one TD.
The Titans best DT Jeffery Simmons is out for this game, so Taylor will have even more open lanes to run than usual.
In his last two matchups against the Titans, Taylor has gone for 218 yards and 3 TDs on 29 carries in one game and then 118 yards, 3 TDs and 17 carries in the other.
The Colts are almost 15-point home favorites. I think Taylor will get this comfortably. It is Warren that is the riskiest part of this bet.
It is National Tight End Day this Sunday and while on the surface that seems silly to factor into betting, I promise you it does matter to some teams.
I bet $7 at +206 odds for a $21.42 return.
Bijan Robinson: SGP of Falcons Moneyline, 70+ rushing yards and a TD.
Please see my post last week outlining how dreadful the Dolphins are at run defense.
I bet $10 at +100 odds for a $20.00 return.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Dak Prescott - CeeDee Lamb - Jake Ferguson - JK Dobbins (or Troy Franklin/Cortland Sutton)
This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is ranked first in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Cowboys games rank first in total points and Broncos games average the sixth-most combined plays. There will be potential for a lot of offense in this game for both teams.
Yes, the Broncos defense is a good one, but they did yield a QB8 finish to Daniel Jones, a QB12 finish to Justin Herbert, and last week’s QB3 result to Jaxson Dart.
Jake Ferguson leads the Cowboys in targets, catches, and receiving touchdowns.
You could do Bo Nix - Cortland Sutton - Troy Franklin - CeeDee Lamb as your stack instead and I would not begrudge you for that. There are advanced models out there showing that both Sutton and Franklin have been underperforming fantasy wise compared to what they should be outputting. If this game goes a certain way, both of those players could go off against this awful Cowboys secondary.
Josh Allen - Khalil Shakir - Dalton Kincaid - Tetairoa McMillan (or Rico Dowdle)
This is the third highest scoring game on the main slate (tied with Bucs-Saints).
The last three out of four quarterbacks to face the Panthers all finished as a top ten fantasy QB that week. The only QB to not do so was Justin Fields. Josh Allen is coming off a bye and two losses; I think he will get back on track for this game.
The last time we saw Dalton Kincaid on the field he notched his first 100-yard game against New England.
The Panthers have given up the NFL’s fourth-most yards to tight ends and Kincaid is fantasy’s TE5 in per-game scoring.
Khalil Shakir runs 60% of his routes in the slot, so he should avoid Panthers top CB Jaycee Horn for the majority of the game. Horn plays zone coverage on the perimeter.
The Bills defense has allowed 696 rushing yards at 5.4 YPC and 8 rushing TDs to enemy running backs and will be without one of their starting DT in DaQuan Jones. I hope the Panthers stick to Dowdle since he clearly is outperforming Hubbard.
Baker Mayfield - Tez Johnson - Cade Otton - Rashid Shaheed
This is the third highest scoring game on the main slate (tied with Bills-Panthers)
This game is ranked second in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
This game is indoors so we don’t have to worry about any weather conditions that affect games this time of year.
In their two meetings last year, these matchups averaged 62 total points and 132.5 combined plays. Now the Saints have a bonafide offensive coach in Kellen Moore.
The Saints have allowed the NFL’s sixth-highest passer rating. I expect Baker Mayfield to bounce back from his poor performance against the Lions last week.
The Bucs rank top-10 in explosive play rate, and their contests are top 10 in total points. There should be plenty of offense in this game.
Cade Otton is fantasy’s TE10 in PPR scoring over the past three weeks despite scoring zero touchdowns in that span. In those three weeks he has been averaging 5 catches and 66 yards per game along with a top-10 target share amongst all tight ends.
The Bucs have yielded the NFL’s eighth-highest completion rate and sixth-most yards per pass attempt and are missing their top two pass rushers (DT Calijah Kancey and DE Haason Reddick). The Saints passing offense should function at least adequately in this game.
The Bucs have given up the NFL’s third-most 20+ yard completions, this is why I mainly prefer Shaheed over Olave in this game, but playing Olave is not a bad choice at all.
Shaheed has had five-plus targets in every game this season.
Tez Johnson has averaged 8.9 yards per target, had 45+ yards in three straight games, and a touchdown in two straight games.
Favorite One-Off Players
All the players I mentioned in my Traditional Bets Placed.
Derrick Henry
He’s only $6K this week and while Lamar Jackson being out hurts his out and the Bears run defense has improved since the beginning of the year, I just cannot fade him at that price.
DeVonta Smith
AJ Brown is out for this game, so Smith steps up as the number one WR on the team.
The Giants will be without starting CB Paulson Adebo and starting FS Jevon Holland.
On the season, the Giants have coughed up the league’s second-most catches and a league-high 1,267 yards to wide receivers.
Dart Throw Plays
Rachaad White
The Bucs are favored by 4.5 points, so there is an expectation of running the ball.
The Saints just got throttled by Bears running backs for a combined 216 yards and 2 TDs with 6.5 YPC last week.
White should have more pass catching opportunities due to banged up Bucs WR core.
Chase Brown
Brown finally had a good game last week with 108 rushing yards and did much of the damage himself, generating a whopping 87 of his rushing yards after contact. He averaged almost 10 yards a carry last week.
The Bengals are six-point home favorites, so there is an expectation of running the ball.
Zay Flowers
If Lamar Jackson was playing, this would not be a “dart throw” play but quite the opposite.
The Bears are missing almost their entire secondary for this game. Passing lanes should be wide open for the Ravens offense.
Jaylin Noel
Both Nico Collins and Christian Kirk are out for this game.
The 49ers defense has allowed the third-most yards to slot wide receivers in the league, where Noel runs most of his routes.
The 49ers defense has struggled to pressure the QB ever since they lost Nick Bosa, so CJ Stroud should have a relatively clean pocket to throw from.
Noel had seven targets last week and is still just $3500. That’s way to cheap for his potential.
Romeo Doubs
Opposing WR1s have averaged 10.3 weekly targets (second) against Pittsburgh including Jerry Jeudy (13) and Ja’Marr Chase’s (23) in recent starts. Doubs should get plenty of opportunities in this game.
Doubs has gotten 22.2%, 34.6%, and 28.5% of the team’s targets since Week 4. He is the Packers most consistent WR.
Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week
Joe Flacco - Ja’Marr Chase - Tee Higgins - Mason Taylor
This game is ranked third highest in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Sauce Garder is out. No one can guard Chase anyway, but this certainly makes things much worse for the Jets secondary.
The Jets have allowed the NFL’s eighth-most 20+ yard completions despite having faced the ninth-fewest pass attempts.
Garret Wilson and Josh Reynolds are both out for the Jets, so targets should condense around Taylor.
The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this year. They've allowed nine touchdowns to the tight end position, four more than the third-worst mark. Just last week they got murdered by three tight ends in one game!
The Bengals have allowed the most EPA per pass in the league and the second-highest dropback success rate.
Their pass-rush win rate ranks 31st, and the team is giving up 394 yards of offense per game, also second-worst.
