Week 7 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
Quinshon Judkins: SGP of 60+ rushing yards and a TD.
The Dolphins’ defense has allowed opponents to score on a league-high 60% of their possessions.
The Dolphins’ defense ranks 32nd in EPA as a rush defense (that’s dead last folks).
Over the past two weeks, Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle combined to go over 370 yards and score two touchdowns against the Dolphins and Judkins is a better back than both of them.
In fact, the Dolphins have allowed a running back to go over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the past five weeks (Vidal, Dowdle, Breece Hall, James Cook, Rhamondre Stevenson).
Yes, the Browns as a whole are an offensive mess, but Judkins is a legit back going against an absolutely atrocious defense.
I bet $10 at +100 odds for a $20.00 return.
Rashee Rice: SGP of Chiefs Moneyline, 40+ receiving yards, and a TD.
There’s no real matchup analysis here. This bet is very “vibes” based.
Rice is fully healthy and back from suspension. I imagine Mahomes will want to get him involved in the offense.
Rice is actually a good player and the Chiefs best offensive weapon.
In the three full games Rice played in last year, he had a 33% target share.
I bet $10 at +180 odds for a $28.00 return.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: SGP of 40+ rushing yards and a TD.
The Cowboys allow the fourth most fantasy points to running backs and the third most yards per carry to running backs.
The Cowboys gave up 239 total yards to Rico Dowdle last week, and Croskey-Merritt plays for a much better team than Dowdle does.
Croskey-Merritt posted his highest snap rate of the season last week against the Bears, so hopefully that shows he is becoming the number one RB option for the Commanders.
I bet $10 at +114 odds for a $21.40 return.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Caleb Williams - Rome Odunze - DJ Moore - Rashid Shaheed
This is the third highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is ranked second in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Saints’ defense is surrendering the NFL’s fifth-highest passer rating.
The Saints’ defense has given up the seventh-most QB rushing yards.
Bears games this season have been very high-scoring with 53.4 total points per game, which ranks fourth in the league.
Wide receivers are averaging 2.21 fantasy points per target against the Bears’ defense.
The Bears’ secondary is giving up the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy WR points.
Their secondary did look improved last week against the Commanders, but I still don’t think they’re formidable at all.
Shaheed has recorded five-plus targets in each game this season. He’s a cheap play and the kind of guy that can generate big plays and force this game into a shootout.
Dak Prescott - CeeDee Lamb - Jake Ferguson - Deebo Samuel (or Jacory Croskey Merritt)
This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is ranked first in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Cowboys rank first in offensive EPA per play and last inn defensive EPA per play. Basically, they are the perfect fantasy football environment where their offense scores a lot of points, and their defense gives up a ton of points.
Going further, the Cowboys are first in yards gained and yards surrendered, while their games rank first in total points (60.3).
Trevon Diggs is out for the Cowboys, so their weak secondary is now even weaker.
Patrick Mahomes - Rashee Rice - Xavier Worthy - Michael Mayer
This is the fourth highest scoring game on the main slate, but the Chiefs are the highest projected scoring team at around 29 points.
The Raiders defense has yielded the NFL’s eighth-most 20+ yard completions. Mahomes could easily find Worthy for a big play TD.
Last week with Brock Browers out, Mayer ran a route on 80% of Geno Smith‘s dropbacks and led the Raiders with a 30.4% target share and seven total targets.
Justin Herbert - Quentin Johnston - Keenan Allen - Tyler Warren
This is the second highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
Over the last four weeks, only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the Colts.
The Colts best CB Charvarius Ward is out for the Colts.
Favorite One-Off Players
All the players I mentioned in my Traditional Bets Placed.
Jonathan Taylor
I shouldn’t have to convince you to play Taylor at this point in the season, but just in case…
The Chargers have allowed 530 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
The Chargers allow 4.95 YPC to opposing running backs.
Last week De’Von Achane ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers. Achane is a legit player, but Taylor is still better and plays for a better team.
Jonathan Taylor has logged at least 20 touches in all six games. He is a true workhorse back.
Jerry Jeudy
You know how I said above that the Dolphins had the 32nd ranked rush defense by EPA? Well, they have the 31st ranked pass defense by EPA, so they’re terrible no matter how you look at it.
The Browns look like a JV team on offense, but Jeudy had 13 targets last week and is averaging 9 targets per game.
He’s only $4400 this week.
Dart Throw Plays
Isiah Pacheco
The Chiefs are favored by 12 points and are playing at home, so Pacheco is set up for a reasonable workload.
Pacheco is averaging around 4.5 YPC in three of his last four games.
Pacheco played 76.6% of snaps, ran 29 routes on 38 dropbacks, and out-carried Kareem Hunt 12-6 against the Lions last week, so he seems to truly be the lead back now.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Despite Stevenson not exactly playing great football, he still out-snapped TreVeyon Henderson 46-19, out-carried him 13-9, and out-routed him 16-6 in their game against the Saints last week.
I think most people believe Henderson is more talented than Stevenson, but Mike Vrabel continues to play Stevenson over him regardless.
In terms of fantasy points, the Titans have allowed the second-most to running backs this season.
Kimani Vidal
Vidal is playing in the second-highest game total of the main slate.
Vidal ran most of his plays last week with “zone” runs. The Colts are allowing the sixth-highest yards per carry and fifth-highest success rate to zone runs.
Things to Watch Out for This Week
I don’t have a crazy play this week, but there are some situations to monitor:
Weather
The Dolphins-Browns game could contain heavy winds and rain. This would put a heavy damper on the pass game but could boost Quinshon Judkins’s matchup even more.
The Saints-Bears game could contain heavy winds and rain. This would put a heavy damper on the pass game. I really like the Bears defense this week. In fact, in terms of DraftKings scoring, the Bears defense has scored 11, -4, 11, 10, and 9 points. So besides the atrocious game against the Lions, the Bears D has been a great fantasy defense.
The Titans-Patriots game could contain heavy winds and rain. This would put a heavy damper on the pass game but could boost Rhamondre Stevenson’s matchup even more. I also really like the Patriots defense this week.
Injuries
Jakobi Meyers for the Raiders looks very questionable. If he’s out, I would continue to boost Michael Mayer.
Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz for the Commanders both look very questionable. If they are out, I’m fully loading up Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
D’Andre Swift for the Bears looks very questionable. If he can’t play, Kyle Monangai looks like a great play.
