Week 6 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
Jonathan Taylor: SGP of Colts Moneyline, 50+ rushing yards, and a TD.
The Colts are seven-point favorites at home, so they will be expected to run the ball.
The Cardinals’ defense allows the NFL’s eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt, sixth-lowest passer rating, and sixth-fewest fantasy QB points. They are clearly more vulnerable to the ground attack rather than through the air. Taylor should continue his bell cow usage.
The Colts rank top five in sacks and have allowed the league’s third-fewest points. I don’t think the Cardinals’ offense will compete enough to get a win.
I bet $10 at -135 odds for a $17.40 return.
Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs: SGP of Packers Moneyline, Kraft 40+ receiving yards and a TD, and Jacobs 60+ rushing yards and a TD.
The Packers are nearly 15-point favorites at home. They should win this game with ease and focus primarily on establishing the run.
The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to running backs. Josh Jacobs also does not share the load with another RB (like Montgomery and Gibbs).
Tucker Kraft leads the Packers in targets, catches, yards, and catch rate on Love’s throws.
No team has given up more fantasy TE points than the Bengals.
Tucker Kraft leads all tight ends in YAC, and the Bengals are allowing the second-most YAC in the entire league.
I bet $10 at +445 odds for a $54.50 return.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Dak Prescott - George Pickens - Jake Ferguson - Tetairoa McMillan (or Rico Dowdle)
This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
This game is ranked first in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Cowboys games are top five in both combined snaps and total points.
The Panthers are dead last in both pressure rate and sacks. Although the Cowboys OL has some injuries, Dak should have a relatively clean pocket to throw from.
Jake Ferguson is fantasy’s overall TE1, and only the Bengals have given up more fantasy points to tight ends than the Panthers.
The Panthers still have a bad run defense, but it has been improving every week. This might force Dallas to focus more on passing than the run game.
The Cowboys’ defense is allowing the NFL’s third-highest completion rate, a league-high 8.4 yards per pass attempt, and the NFL’s second-highest passer rating. Bryce Young has looked terrible this season, but this is his chance to shine.
The Cowboys have allowed a league high in yards and receiving TDs to opposing WRs.
The Cowboys are top-three in defenses deploying the most two-high safety looks and are also in the top-five in most receptions allowed per game. There should be plenty of opportunities to find open WRs or TEs against them.
Tetairoa McMillan has seen eight or more targets in every game this season, but hasn’t had a fully explosive game yet. This is his best chance so far this season.
Daniel Jones - Michael Pittman - Tyler Warren - Marvin Harrison Jr.
This is the second highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with Seahawks-Jaguars and Bucs-49ers).
The Cardinals have allowed the NFL’s fourth-most catches and seventh-most yards to wide receivers.
The Cardinals have given up the league’s second-most catches and fifth-most yards to tight ends.
The Cardinals are top-three in defenses deploying the most two-high safety looks and are also in the top-five in most receptions allowed per game. There should be plenty of opportunities to find open WRs or TEs against them.
On the other side, the Colts have surrendered the league’s sixth-most fantasy WR points.
Marvin Harrison Jr’s dad obviously played for the Colts, so this will be an interesting reunion of sorts.
Baker Mayfield - Emeka Egbuka - Tez Johnson - Kendrick Bourne
This is the second highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with Seahawks-Jaguars and Colts-Cardinals).
This game is ranked third in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The 49ers rank first in the league in pass attempts. Yes, you read that correctly. A Kyle Shanahan coached team is throwing the ball at a higher pace than the rest of the NFL.
The Bucs are holding RBs to 3.63 yards per carry but yielding the NFL’s sixth-highest passer rating (105). They also ruled out starting LCB Zyon McCollum (thumb) on Friday, so their weak secondary is even more depleted.
The Bucs rank first in EPA per play allowed on the ground and 27th through the air.
Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle are both still out for the 49ers. San Francisco’s primary two-wide set will be composed of Kendrick Bourne and Juan Jennings, the latter of whom has battled four separate injuries since early August.
Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne clearly have chemistry from their time in New England. Bourne went ballistic last week with putting up 10 receptions for 142 yards on 11 targets.
The Bucs are seventh in EPA per play, sixth in yards, and second in touchdowns through the air.
Emeka Egbuka is averaging 2.5 yards per route run and leads the NFL in passer rating when targeted (145.3).
Tez Johnson drew five targets and caught four for 59 yards on just 36% of Week 5’s offensive snaps. Johnson shined at Oregon for his last two years in college by gathering 169 catches, 2000 yards and 20 receiving TDs. He has talent and is only $3200 this week.
Trevor Lawrence - Brian Thomas Jr. - Dyami Brown - Jaxon Smith Njigba
This is the second highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with Bucs-49ers and Colts-Cardinals).
The Seahawks are top-three in defenses deploying the most two-high safety looks and are also in the top-five in most receptions allowed per game. There should be plenty of opportunities to find open WRs or TEs against them.
The Jags traded away their most talented cornerback, Tyson Campbell, this week. They got Greg Newsome in return, but he’s barely practiced after being acquired on Tuesday.
Just like last week, the Seahawks secondary is extremely hurt with With SS Julian Love (hamstring), CB Devon Witherspoon (knee), and Riq Woolen (concussion) out for this game.
Favorite One-Off Players
Jonathan Taylor (see above)
Josh Jacobs (see above)
Puka Nacua
Have you seen him this season?
Kyren Williams
The Rams are seven-point favorites, so they are expected to run the ball.
The Ravens have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs in the league.
Roquan Smith is still out for the Ravens, while they are getting back CBs Marlon Humphrey and Safety Kyle Hamilton, so the Ravens’ pass defense will be a little improved while their run defense will still be putrid.
Ashton Jeanty
The Raiders are almost five-point home favorites, so they’re expected to be ahead and running the ball.
The Titans are giving up the league’s second-most fantasy points to running backs.
We know Jeanty has slate-breaking potential. Don’t sleep on him this week.
Rico Dowdle
Chuba Hubbard is still out, so the backfield is fully in Dowdle’s hands.
We just saw Dowdle rush for over 200 yards last week and now gets to face his former team. He has been quoted several times that this game is personal to him so I expect him to perform well once again.
Enemy running backs have combined to average 151.2 yards from scrimmage against Dallas through five games.
Dart Throw Plays
Quinshon Judkins
Judkins is the focal point of the Browns’ offense. In his past three games, regardless of game script, he has touch counts of 19, 25, and 24.
He just tagged the Vikings for 128 yards from scrimmage, and we know they have a better defense than the Steelers.
Calvin Ridley
Ridley finally had a breakout game in Week 5 with 5 receptions and 131 yards on 10 targets and now gets a sputtering Raiders defense.
If you truly review Ridley’s season so far, he has been very unlucky. He drew No. 1 corners Patrick Surtain II, Charvarius Ward, and Derek Stingley Jr. in three of his first four games.
The Raiders’ defense coughing up the league’s second-most catches and third-most yards to wide receivers. Ridley has a much better matchup now.
Titans RT J.C. Latham is expected to start. This is huge news for Tennessee’s offensive line. Raiders DE Maxx Crosby most often lines up against right tackles, so at least now Cam Ward will have a fighting chance.
You can pair Ridley with Jeanty for a mini-stack.
Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week
Drake Maye - Stefon Diggs - Hunter Henry - Rashid Shaheed
This game is ranked second highest in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Saints’ defense is surrendering the NFL’s fifth-highest passer rating.
The Saints’ defense has given up the seventh-most QB rushing yards.
Hunter Henry is leading Pats non-QB skill players in snaps and routes run on a weekly basis. The Saints are permitting the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy TE points.
Rashid Shaheed has five-plus targets in all five games this season and has big-play potential on any given play.
As usual, the Saints will be in negative game script and will need to throw the ball in Week 6.
