Week 5 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
I did not place any traditional bets this weekend. These games all look a little puzzling to me. I think the Lions are going to kill the Bengals, but I’m not confident enough in betting on any particular player to have a standout game.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Jared Goff - Amon Ra St. Brown - Jameson Williams - Ja’Marr Chase
This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
The Lions specifically have the highest projected team total of the entire week at 30 points.
The Lions OL has the second-best matchup this week as the Bengals DL has consistently failed to get pressure. The Lions haven’t allowed a sack since Week 1.
The Bengals have allowed the NFL’s seventh-most catches and seventh-most yards to WRs.
I do not have any confidence in the Bengals offense, but that’s why we isolate things in a stacking environment. Jake Browning is 20 for 25 in passing when targeting Chase. We know Chase has slate-breaking upside.
This stack is expensive, but as you read further there is a lot of value this week at both RB and WR that will allow us to play St. Brown and Chase in the same lineup.
Justin Fields - Breece Hall - Garrett Wilson - Jake Ferguson (or George Pickens)
This is the second highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with Raiders-Colts and Chargers-Commanders).
This game is ranked third highest in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Jets are top 10 in explosive play rate, so there could be someone on the team that has a slate-breaking day.
Jets games so far this season have averaged 52 total points per game, which is 5th most on the year.
The last three QBs to face the Cowboys all finished as the week’s overall QB2 with over 28 fantasy points scored in each.
Justin Herbert - Quentin Johnston - Ladd McConkey - Deebo Samuel
This is the second highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with Raiders-Colts and Jets-Cowboys).
This game is ranked second highest in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Commanders are essentially a pass funnel defense. They rank eighth in run defense EPA per play allowed, but 28th against the pass. Their DL ranks in the bottom 10 in pressure rate, so even though Herbert is missing his best two OL, his pocket should be relatively clean.
The Commanders have yielded the league’s ninth-most fantasy QB points.
I understand if you don’t want to play McConkey, but he’s got to go off at least once, and I’d rather strike too early than too late.
Favorite One-Off Players
David Montgomery
The Lions are almost 11-point favorites, and the Bengals are one of the worst defenses in the entire league.
Montgomery is from Cincinnati and played there in high school. Sunday will mark his first game back in Cincinnati since Montgomery left high school.
This is also the first game his paralyzed sister will be able to see him play.
Cam Skattebo
The Saints’ defense is yielding the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy running back points.
Tyrone Tracy is still out, and the Giants lost Malik Nabers, so Skattebo will be further relied upon to generate offense.
The Giants-Saints game is ranked highest in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Tetairoa McMillan
McMillan has at least eight targets in all four games.
The Dolphins’ secondary is arguably the worst in the league. Their best CB is Rasul Douglas who is over 30 years old and is on his eighth NFL team.
Jonathan Taylor
Have you seen him this season?
De’Von Achane
Achane is averaging 17.3 touches for 97.3 yards per game.
Achane ranks number two among NFL running backs in targets, number three in catches, and number four in receiving yards.
Outside of a fluky Week 3 shutout of Atlanta, Carolina’s defense has coughed up scoring totals of 26 to the Jaguars, 27 to the Cardinals, and 42 to the Patriots. They should not be feared.
With Tyreek Hill gone, Achane will be relied on even more to generate offense.
Rico Dowdle
Chuba Hubbard is out, so the backfield is now in Dowdle’s hands.
Opposing RBs have gone for 440 total yards at a 4.7 YPC clip rushing against the Dolphins. This isn’t earth-shattering but shows that the Dolphins certainly aren’t stymieing backs.
Dart Throw Plays
Woody Marks
The Ravens have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season.
They are without their best LB in Roquan Smith.
The Ravens are also without two of their starting DTs.
Tre Tucker
Brock Bowers is out for the game, so passing should be concentrated on Tucker and Jakobi Meyers.
The Raiders are seven-point underdogs, so they are expected to throw.
The Colts will not have CBs Kenny Moore and Xavien Howard, so their secondary will be depleted.
Tucker runs 4.41 and is playing 93% of Las Vegas’ offensive snaps.
The Colts have allowed the league’s third-most fantasy WR points.
Tucker went for 8/145/3 in Week 3, so we know he has a massive ceiling.
I like pairing Tucker with Jonathan Taylor for a mini-stack.
Darius Slayton
Slayton leads the Giants in yards on throws from Jaxson Dart. He has been a 90% participant on offense.
Slayton had 28% and 32% target shares in two games without Malik Nabers last season.
The Giants-Saints game is ranked highest in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed has a 17% target share on the Saints and is capable of breaking off a big play at any time.
The Giants-Saints game is ranked highest in pace of play for the main slate of games, so there should be more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week
Sam Darnold - Jaxson Smith Njigba - Cooper Kupp - Emeka Egbuka
At first glance this game does not seem appealing for stacking purposes, but…
The Seahawks ruled out EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (quad), CB Devon Witherspoon (knee), and SS Julian Love (hamstring) against Tampa Bay. Their defense will not be as strong against the pass as they usually are.
On the other side, the Bucs ruled out CBs Jamel Dean (hip) and Benjamin Morrison (hamstring). The Seahawks pass offense just got upgraded.
The intent of the Seahawks offense has been to establish the run this entire season, but they’ve actually had a hard time doing that.
They have a league-high 33 rushing attempts that have either lost or gained zero yards.
The Bucs have stymied opposing running backs to the tune of 74/216/2 (2.9 YPC) rushing.
Essentially, the Seahawks might have to throw a lot to generate offense, and on the other side we could see the Bucs throw to match that. This game has sneaky shootout potential.
