Week 3 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
Bijan Robinson: SGP of Falcons MoneyLine, 50+ rushing yards, and a TD.
In two games against the Panthers last year, Bijan ran for a total of 265 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
The Falcons are almost 6-point favorites, so Vegas is expecting them to win comfortably.
The Panthers rush defense did look improved against the Cardinals last week, but I believe that’s more of a fluke than what they truly are.
I bet $10 at +106 odds for a $20.60 return.
Kenneth Walker: SGP of Seahawks MoneyLine, 50+ rushing yards and a TD.
Zach Charbonnet is out for this game, so Walker will have full reign of the backfield.
The Seahawks are almost 7-point favorites and are at home, so Vegas is expecting them to win comfortably.
The Saints are without their best DT in Taliese Fuaga, so running lanes will be open for Walker.
The Saints’ run defense is 16th in rushing yards per game allowed. They also have the 3rd-highest missed tackle rate and 11th-highest yards after contact allowed.
I bet $10 at +100 odds for a $20.00 return.
Jonathan Taylor: SGP of Colts MoneyLine, 40+ rushing yards and a TD.
In two games against the Titans last year, Taylor went for a total of 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The Colts are almost 5-point favorites, so Vegas is expecting them to win, but not so comfortably.
The Titans are without one of their starting DT in T’Vondre Sweat, so running lanes will be open for Taylor.
On a per-game basis, Taylor is the number-one RB in snaps (56.5) and rush attempts (21.5).
Against the Broncos last week, Taylor was the only Colts RB to touch the ball.
I bet $10 at +100 odds for a $20.00 return.
Bucky Irving: SGP of Bucs MoneyLine and a TD.
Only three teams have given up more fantasy points to RBs than the Jets.
The Bucs OL is banged up, so they most likely won’t rely on the passing game.
The Bucs are almost 7-point favorites at home, so Vegas is expecting them to win comfortably.
I bet $10 at +116 odds for a $21.60 return.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Caleb Williams - Rome Odunze - DJ Moore - CeeDee Lamb (or George Pickens)
This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
The Bears are 3rd overall in no-huddle rate, and this matchup is the highest-paced matchup of the week, so there should be plenty of plays and opportunities for scoring.
The Bears are without their best CB in Jaylon Johnson, are still without their slot CB in Kyler Gordon, and are without their best LB in TJ Edwards. Their defense is atrocious, so we know the Cowboys will be scoring points.
The Cowboys do not have a pass rush and are without one of their starting CBs in Daron Bland. Caleb should have time to throw, and we just hope he actually makes those throws.
Matthew Stafford - Puka Nacua - Davante Adams - Saquan Barkley (or AJ Brown)
This is the third highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with Steelers-Patriots).
In two games against the Eagles last year, Stafford averaged 284 passing yards and two touchdowns. You have to remember that Cooper Kupp was basically useless, so the only weapon Stafford had was Nacua. Now he has Davante Adams, who still has juice left.
In two games against the Rams last year, Barkley averaged 230 rushing yards!!!!
Drake Maye - Kayshon Boutte - DK Metcalf
This is the third highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with Rams-Eagles).
The Patriots are still without their best CB in Christian Gonzalez and have been shredded by Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith.
In addition, no NFL defense has given up more 20+ yard completions than the Patriots, so I love DK Metcalf.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers defense looks putrid. They’ve allowed the 5th most fantasy points to QBs even though they’ve faced Justin Fields and Sam Darnold.
I am still sticking with Boutte after a rough week because he still led the Patriots in snaps and routes. I don’t really know who else I would stack with.
Favorite One-Off Players
Everyone I mentioned in the bets I placed.
Christian McCaffrey
No need to elaborate.
Keenan Allen
Allen leads the Chargers in targets this season and runs most of his routes from the slot, so he should avoid coverage from Patrick Surtain II.
This Broncos-Chargers game is the second highest projected scoring game of the week, so Vegas does expect some offensive fireworks here.
The Chargers have the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation in the league, so Herbert is expected to continue throwing.
He’s only $4700, which is far too cheap.
Jordan Mason
No Aaron Jones, the Bengals’ run defense is putrid, Carson Wentz is still new to the offense, and the Vikings are expected to give the ball to Mason “a lot” per reports.
Dart Throw Plays
Dontayvion Wicks
Jayden Reed is out, and Wicks runs most of his routes in the slot.
Wicks had 124 air yards and a 22% target share when Reed was ruled out last week, so he has plenty of opportunities.
The Browns’ run defense has shut down the Bengals and Ravens the past two weeks, so the Packers might have to throw in order to score.
He’s only $3700.
Javonte Williams
The Bears-Cowboys game is going to have points. I am confident in that. Where those points come from, I cannot claim I “know”, otherwise I would tell you, but they have to come from somewhere.
The Bears’ defense is atrocious in all facets of the game, but they’ve given up three touchdowns to RBs this season and plenty of yards. If the Cowboys don’t score through the air, then Williams will be the main beneficiary.
Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed
The Seahawks-Saints game has the second highest pace of play on the week. The Saints on their own actually lead the NFL in neutral pace and are third in Pass Rate Over Expectation.
The Seahawks are without three of their starters in the secondary, so passing doesn’t look as tough anymore.
Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week
Carson Wentz - Justin Jefferson - TJ Hockenson - Tee Higgins (or Chase Brown).
On the surface this game looks ugly with two backup QBs and a 42-point projected total.
However, this game is indoors.
Jordan Mason is projected to be the highest-owned player of the week, so you would be leveraging off of him in a big way.
This stack is very cheap, so you can fit in other studs around it.
