Week 2 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts
Traditional Bets Placed
DeVonta Smith + AJ Brown: SGP of Smith (5+ receptions and 50+ receiving yards) and Brown (50+ receiving yards).
Dallas Goedert is out for the game, so the receiving corps will be more concentrated on Brown and Smith. Last year, in games where Goedert didn’t play DeVonta Smith averaged 6 receptions and 81 yards per game. Overall, Smith ranked top 12 in fantasy PPG last year when one of Goedert or Brown missed a game.
The Chief’s defense is a pass-funnel defense that just got lit up by Justin Herbert with much worse weapons than Brown and Smith.
One last DeVonta Smith stat: In four career games against the Chiefs, Smith has averaged 6 receptions and 98 receiving yards.
I bet $10 at +128 odds for a $22.80 return.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba: SGP of 6+ receptions and 70+ receiving yards.
The Steelers best CB in Joey Porter is out for the game.
Smith-Njigba had an incredible 13 targets last week, which led to 9 receptions and 124 yards receiving.
Garret Wilson just went for 7 receptions and 95 yards against the Steelers last week, so we know not to fear their defense too much.
I bet $10 at +120 odds for a $22.00 return.
Derrick Henry: SGP of 80+ rushing yards and a TD.
In two games against the Browns last year, Henry went for 73 rushing yards and a TD and 138 rushing yards with two TDs.
The Ravens are almost 12-point favorites and are playing at home. This sets up Henry for a prime performance.
I bet $10 at +110 odds for a $21.00 return.
DraftKings Strategy
Favorite Stacks
Trevor Lawrence - Brian Thomas Jr. - Brenton Strange - Ja’Marr Chase (or Tee Higgins)
This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
I originally had Joe Burrow - Ja’Marr Chase - Tee Higgins - Brian Thomas Jr., but that build eats too much salary and limits flexibility. I’ll probably use it in one lineup, maybe two.
In Week 1, the Jaguars ranked 7th in pace and the Bengals 10th. With two top-10 pace teams, expect extra plays and scoring chances.
In DFS, I love targeting bounce-back weeks from proven players. This stack is full of guys who underwhelmed last week.
Chase, Higgins, and Thomas Jr. are all projected to be in the top 15 highest owned players this week. Don’t let that scare you, just make sure the rest of your lineup isn’t filled with chalky plays.
Josh Allen - Khalil Shakir - Garrett Wilson (or Breece Hall)
This is the second highest projected scoring game on the main slate.
I usually avoid “skinny” stacks, but the Jets offense is highly concentrated, and Shakir is the Bills’ most consistent WR. Keon Coleman will likely see coverage from Sauce Gardner, making Shakir the safer play.
The Jets play man-coverage defense, which will enhance Josh Allen’s fantasy outcome due to allowing him to run. In fact, Allen faced new Jets’ head coach Aaron Glenn twice while he was with the Lions and tallied rushing lines of 78 yards and a TD and 68 yards with two TDs.
The Bills just gave up 169 rushing yards to Derrick Henry. They are now without their best DT in Ed Oliver for this week. Breece Hall is looking like a great play.
You can certainly play Justin Fields - Garret Wilson - Khalil Shakir. I will throw that stack in some lineups.
Jalen Hurts - AJ Brown - DeVonta Smith - Hollywood Brown
This is the third highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with two others).
Jalen Hurts has faced Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense three times over the past three seasons. He has averaged 225 yards passing, 57 yards rushing, and three total touchdowns per matchup.
This game has the second-highest projected pace for the week, so there’s more opportunities for plays and scoring.
Drake Maye - Kayshon Boutte - Hunter Henry - Jaylen Waddle (or De’Von Achane)
This game ranks in the top three of total pace, so there’s more opportunities for plays and scoring.
The Patriots are still without their best CB in Christian Gonzalez and just gave up 362 passing yards to Geno Smith.
The Dolphins are at home and Vegas actually favors them to win over the Patriots, so Vegas is expecting the Dolphins to not look as lifeless as they did last week against the Colts.
The Dolphins offensive line was already deemed one of the worst before the season started, and now they lost two of their starters in Austin Jackson and James Daniels. I cannot in good conscience play Tua, so I am sticking with the Patriots side for the stack and only including a Dolphins player in the bring back.
The Dolphins’ secondary was already deemed one of the worst before the season started, and now they lost their best CB in Storm Duck for this week.
Kayshon Boutte led the Patriots WRs with a 17.4% target share and 73.6% route participation in Week 1. He had 6 receptions for 103 receiving yards based on 8 total targets. In his last six games Boutte has averaged 5 receptions, 67 receiving yards and a TD.
Both of these teams are coming off losses, so I am hoping there’s been adjustments by both which will lead to better play.
Favorite One-Off Players
Cedric Tillman
Over his last six healthy games, Tillman has averaged 5 receptions, 64 yards, and a touchdown, while commanding a 21% target share and 40% of the Browns’ end-zone looks.
In those six games, he has outscored Jerry Jeudy in five out of those six.
In seven career starts for the Browns, Joe Flacco has averaged 36 pass attempts. The Browns are almost 12-point underdogs, so the expectation is for them to throw while behind. Tillman should have plenty of opportunities.
He’s only $4300 this week.
Derrick Henry (See above)
You can pair Henry with Tillman for a “mini-stack” in one of your lineups.
Christian McCaffrey
No need to elaborate.
James Conner
For the past seven games, the Panthers have given up over 200 rushing yards PER GAME.
Just last week against the Jaguars, the Panthers gave up specifically 173 rushing yards for 6.9 YPC to the running backs.
The Panthers lost their best DT Tershawn Wharton.
I know Conner severely underwhelmed last week, but you have to have a short memory in DFS and just be willing to take chances.
Ricky Pearsall
In the last three games in which there was no Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, Pearsall averaged 6 receptions for 106 yards and a TD.
George Kittle is out for this game, thus further concentrating the offense around Pearsall (and McCaffrey of course).
Dart Throw Plays
Javonte Williams
The Giants defensive strength does come from their DL, but more in the form of the pass rush, not run stopping.
One of the best ways to mitigate the pass rush is to run the ball.
In fact, the Commanders running backs combined for 133 rushing yards, one TD and overall, 6.7 YPC last week against the Giants.
TreVeyon Henderson
On the surface, it doesn’t seem like Henderson had a good game last week. He only had 27 rushing yards.
However, he did have 6 receptions and when he was on the field he had heavy usage.
The Dolphins have up 156 total rushing yards last week and we all saw how pathetic they looked.
Chris Olave
Olave runs most of his routes from the slot, where Jaxson Smiith-Njigba had a solid game against the 49ers last week.
He had 12 targets already last week, and the Saints offense is very concentrated.
The 49ers have a week secondary in general.
Olave’s price actually dropped from last week to $4900 from $5100.
Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week
Caleb Williams - DJ Moore - Rome Odunze - Sam LaPorta (or Amon-Ra St. Brown).
This is the third highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with two others).
This game is indoors.
Because it involves Ben Johnson facing his former team, I am expecting a little more “juice”.
The Lions looked terrible last week, but as we’ve seen from the Packers so far, they may have one of the best defenses in the entire league. The Bears on the other hand do not. I expect a bounce back game from the Lions.
The Bears are almost 7-point underdogs, so the expectation is for them to throw. Caleb Williams does not look like a good real-life QB, but he’s more than capable of providing fantasy value.
I think Amon-Ra St. Brown is basically matchup proof, but the Bears best slot CB in Kyler Gordon is out for this game, so his matchup is now greatly improved.
