Week 1 NFL 2025-2026 Thoughts

Traditional Bets Placed

• Nico Collins: SGP of Anytime TD, 5+ receptions, and 80+ receiving yards.

  • The Texans are road underdogs, so they will be expected to be behind and thus forced to throw.

  • Christian Kirk is out for this game, so targets will most likely concentrate more to Nico Collins.

  • The Rams’ starting CBs ranked 23rd in coverage last year and struggled particularly on the outside, where Collins ran 81% of his routes.

  • I bet $15 at +252 odds for a $52.80 return.

• Jonathan Taylor: SGP of Anytime TD and 100+ rushing yards.

  • The Colts are home favorites playing in a dome, so they are expected to lean on the run, giving Taylor enough volume to hit both his rushing and touchdown props.

  • The QB situation in Indy is dire, and the Colts will try their best not to rely on the passing game.

  • These two teams faced off last year and the Colts were able to garner 155 rushing yards against them without Jonathan Taylor. When Taylor is fully healthy, he is matchup-proof and a force to be reckoned with.

  • I bet $13 at +290 odds for a $50.70 return.

DraftKings Strategy

Favorite Stacks

• Tua Tagovailoa - Jaylen Waddle - Tyreek Hill - Jonathan Taylor (or Josh Downs)

  • This is the 4th highest projected scoring game on the main slate.

  • This game is indoors with two healthy offenses.

  • The projected highest owned player from this game is De’Von Achane, so you would be avoiding that chalk.

  • This stack is cheap and allows you to fit in more studs.

  • We’ve seen the Dolphins offense win people lots of money in DraftKings before so we know they are capable even if the environment surrounding the Dolphins seems dysfunctional.

• Joe Flacco - Jerry Jeudy - David Njoku - Ja’Marr Chase (or Tee Higgins)

  • This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with two others).

  • The projected highest owned player from this game is Chase Brown, so you would be avoiding that chalk.

  • Both offenses are helmed by coordinators that push the pace, so there will be more opportunities for plays and scoring.

  • The Bengals defense is atrocious.

  • This stack is even cheaper than the Dolphins stack.

• Baker Mayfield - Mike Evans - Emeka Egbuka - Drake London

  • This is the highest projected scoring game on the main slate (tied with two others).

  • This game is indoors.

  • London and Egbuka will be highly owned but stacking them helps differentiate your lineup from those using them as solo plays.

  • Both offenses are helmed by coordinators that push the pace, so there will be more opportunities for plays and scoring.

  • The Falcons secondary is starting two unproven rookies, and their best CB in AJ Terrell has historically struggled containing Mike Evans.

Favorite One-Off Players

• Jonathan Taylor (see above)

• Nico Collins (see above)

• Emeka Egbuka

  • Last year the Falcons surrendered the 4th most receptions to WRs and as mentioned above their secondary arguably got worse.

  • There is no Chris Godwin or Jalen McMillan, so Egbuka is firmly the #2 WR in an offense that is projected to score a lot of points.

  • He’s only $4600, which will probably be the cheapest he will be all season.

• James Conner

  • The Saints will be without their best defensive lineman in Chase Young.

  • The new defensive coordinator for the Saints is Brandon Staley, who famously does not care about attacking an opponent’s rushing offense.

  • The Cardinals are favored by almost 7 points, so they are projected to be ahead and continue to run the ball.

  • Conner averaged almost 16 carries and 4.7 YPC last year, so the Cardinals certainly trust and rely on him to generate offense.

Dart Throw Plays

• Hunter Henry

  • When Drake Maye took over for the Patriots last year, Hunter Henry led the Pats in targets, catches, and yards.

  • In 2024, the Raiders allowed the NFL’s third-most fantasy football points to tight ends.

• Jakobi Meyers

  • Amari Cooper just retired, so Meyers is the top WR for the Raiders.

  • The Patriots best CB Christian Gonzalez is out for this game.

  • We should anticipate the Patriots trying to contain Brock Bowers, thus opening space for Meyers.

• Jaxson Smith-Njigba

  • The 49ers lost both their best CB Charvarius Ward and their best safety Talanoa Hufanga from last year. They are also without their starting free safety in Malik Mustapha.

  • With Cooper Kupp seemingly past his prime, Smith-Njigba has little real competition for targets.

Harry’s Crazy Play of the Week

• Spencer Rattler - Chris Olave - Rashid Shaheed - Trey McBride

  • I want to stress that I am only using this lineup once, and I overall do think the Saints are going to be terrible this year.

  • However, this is week 1, which will have the most unknown outcomes of any week this season.

  • Kellen Moore is an offensive genius and now coaches the Saints.

  • Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are extremely talented WRs and are extremely cheap.

  • This game is indoors.